Climate forcing from the transport sectors.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Although the transport sector is responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions affecting climate, its overall contribution has not been quantified. We provide a comprehensive analysis of radiative forcing from the road transport, shipping, aviation, and rail subsectors, using both past- and forward-looking perspectives. We find that, since preindustrial times, transport has contributed approximately 15% and 31% of the total man-made CO2 and O3 forcing, respectively. A forward-looking perspective shows that the current emissions from transport are responsible for approximately 16% of the integrated net forcing over 100 years from all current man-made emissions. The dominating contributor to positive forcing (warming) is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3. By subsector, road transport is the largest contributor to warming. The transport sector also exerts cooling through reduced methane lifetime and atmospheric aerosol effects. Shipping causes net cooling, except on future time scales of several centuries. Much of the forcing from transport comes from emissions not covered by the Kyoto Protocol.
منابع مشابه
آشکارسازی تغییرات بارشهای حدی و نسبت دهی به تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از روش استاندارد انگشت نگاشت بهینه (مطالعه موردی : جنوب غرب ایران)
Understanding the changes in extreme precipitation over a region is very important for adaptation strategies to climate change. One of the most important topics in this field is detection and attribution of climate change. Over the past two decades, there has been an increasing interest for scientists, engineers and policy makers to study about the effects of external forcing to the climatic va...
متن کاملClimatic impact of the 1783--1784 Laki eruption
Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Abstract The long 1783–1784 eruption of Laki, in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783–1785. R...
متن کاملModelling Transport Energy Demand and Emissions: Development of a Global Passenger Transport Model Coupled with Computable General Equilibrium Model
Transport accounted for around 23% of carbon emissions in 2013, which cannot be ignored in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. With levels of urbanization and motorization increasing rapidly worldwide, carbon emitted in the transport sector, especially passenger traffic, is projected to keep growing. Without the implementation of aggressive and sustained policy interven...
متن کاملRecent trends in the Southern Ocean eddy field
Eddies in the Southern Ocean act to moderate the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to changes in forcing. An updated analysis of the Southern Ocean satellite altimetry record indicates an increase in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in recent decades, contemporaneous with a probable decrease in ACC transport. The EKE trend is largest in the Pacific (14.96 4.1 cm s per decade) and Ind...
متن کاملClimate forcing and air quality change due to regional emissions reductions by economic sector
We examine the air quality (AQ) and radiative forcing (RF) response to emissions reductions by economic sector for North America and developing Asia in the CAM and GISS composition/climate models. Decreases in annual average surface particulate are relatively robust, with intermodel variations in magnitude typically <30% and very similar spatial structure. Surface ozone responses are small and ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید
ثبت ناماگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید
ورودعنوان ژورنال:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
دوره 105 2 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2008